Wednesday, July 8, 2015

Pot Odds: Did I play it right?



Classic Implied Odds Situation: Today's hand is one that most beginner and amateur limit players will misplay pre-flop.  The question for you is, did I misplay it after the flop?


I am in the small blind with plenty of chips.  I have 5c9c.  4 people call in front of me to make the pot $16.  I call for $2, which most players would do with suited cards in the small blind.  The tricky part came next.  The big blind raised to $6, and the caller to his left raised to $9.  The three previous callers also call, and now the pot is $45. 


Here is where I see a lot of amateur players fold.  They say to themselves, "I never should have called with a mediocre hand, and now I am up against monster hands.  I should not call six more dollars."  And that would be WRONG.  It is $6 for you to call a pot of $45.  That is 7.5 to 1 odds on your money, and you are rarely that big of an underdog preflop.  But the more important concept here is IMPLIED ODDS.  If you do happen to spike a good hand, a pot this big will go all the way to the river, and you will collect many more bets from the preflop raisers who will almost never throw their hands away.  This means your implied odds are closer to 10-15 to 1.  Easy call for $6. The big blind calls the $3 re-raise.  Pot is now $54.






Flop is




          


7c 4c 3s   


I am first to act.  I have preflop raisers behind me yet to act.  What do I do?








It's a monster flop for me.  Any 6 gives me a straight.  Any club gives me the flush. This gives me 12 outs that can come on the turn or river.  I have a couple other runner, runner outs as well which give me roughly 50% chance of winning the pot.  With Pot odds around 9 to 1, I need to bet any chance I can.  Many players might check the flop here, waiting to check raise the preflop raisers. Or even worse, waiting to check raise after they hit their flush on the turn or river.  But the odds are too good for you to miss an opportunity to bet, and this flop will not help many people.  They may be content to check and see a free card on the turn.  You also are very likely to have everyone call the small bet because the pot is so large. And that's exactly what you want.  I bet $3.  Everyone calls.  Pot is now $72. 


The turn is


Jc


I've made my flush.  but it is not a high flush.  I need to bet to prevent people with the A,K, or Q of clubs from getting a free chance at a 4 card flush.  There is no point in checking here to set up a check raise.  I should also bet because I am now a favorite to win the hand.  Remember limit poker is not about outwitting your opponent.  It's about taking advantage of the odds and the fact that many limit players call bets when they should  not.  I bet $6 and three people call me.  The pot is $96. 


The river is


10d


This is a great card for me.  No one is going to make a 4 card flush, and no full houses are possible if anyone has been slow playing a set.  Only hands I lose to are bigger flushes than mine.  When that happens, it happens, so you can't let that scare you away from betting here.  I bet $6,  one person calls.  Final pot is $108 (minus $6 rake, so $102 net).  I show my flush and they muck. 


The beginning of the hand is crucial. the implied odds make it mandatory for me to cold call the raise and reraise, and you can see why.  I was calling $6 for the chance to win $102.  You only have to hit your hand once ever seventeen times for this call to pay off.  Should I have checked to the raisers when I got a monster draw on the flop?  I don't think so.  My odds were too good to miss a betting opportunity.  But feel free to tell me why I'm wrong. 


Until next time. 









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